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一带一路市场开垦待时机

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年06月18日 12:55:52
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(  继)(去)(年)(中)(国)(汽)(车)(产)(销)(增)(速)(双)(双)(步)(入)(个)(位)(数)(增)(长)(区)(间)(后)(,今)(年)(以)(来)(低)(迷)(态)(势)(加)(剧)(。
  来)(自)(中)(国)(汽)(车)(工)(业)(协)(会)(的)(统)(计)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,今)(年)(前)(三)(季)(度)(,中)(国)(汽)(车)(产)(销)(分)(别)(为)(1709.16万)(辆)(和)(1705.65万)(辆)(,产)(量)(同)(比)(累)(计)(下)(降)(0.8%,销)(量)(同)(比)(累)(计)(微)(增)(0.3%。其)(中)(9月)(单)(月)(,全)(国)(汽)(车)(产)(量)(更)(是)(同)(比)(下)(滑)(了)(5.6%。
  “这)(在)(近)(10年)(来)(比)(较)(少)(见)(。”国)(务)(院)(发)(展)(研)(究)(中)(心)(产)(业)(经)(济)(研)(究)(部)(主)(任)(王)(晓)(明)(在)(接)(受)(21世)(纪)(经)(济)(报)(道)(记)(者)(采)(访)(时)(说)(,过)(去)(10年)(汽)(车)(产)(业)(平)(均)(增)(速)(依)(次)(快)(于)(机)(械)(装)(备)(制)(造)(业)(、工)(业)(以)(及)(GDP增)(速)(。今)(年)(,这)(一)(先)(后)(顺)(序)(完)(全)(倒)(置)(。
  连)(日)(来)(,21世)(纪)(经)(济)(报)(道)(记)(者)(采)(访)(获)(知)(,在)(国)(内)(市)(场)(日)(益)(饱)(和)(的)(格)(局)(下)(,尚)(待)(开)(发)(的)(“一)(带)(一)(路)(”沿)(线)(市)(场)(被)(众)(多)(车)(企)(视)(为)(下)(一)(片)(“蓝)(海)(”。但)(多)(位)(业)(内)(人)(士)(指)(出)(,该)(市)(场)(的)(开)(垦)(有)(待)(时)(机)(。从)(2012年)(连)(续)(三)(年)(来)(,中)(国)(汽)(车)(出)(口)(量)(均)(大)(幅)(下)(滑)(。
  汽)(车)(增)(速)(放)(缓)(
  自)(中)(国)(“入)(市)(”起)(,中)(国)(汽)(车)(产)(业)(进)(入)(两)(位)(数)(高)(速)(增)(长)(通)(道)(,2000年)(至)(2010年)(中)(国)(汽)(车)(产)(销)(平)(均)(速)(度)(约)(24%。不)(过)(,这)(一)(状)(况)(在)(2010年)(开)(始)(有)(所)(转)(变)(,2010年)(至)(2014年)(这)(一)(增)(速)(缩)(减)(为)(7%,尤)(其)(是)(从)(今)(年)(5月)(开)(始)(,汽)(车)(产)(销)(出)(现)(15年)(来)(的)(首)(次)(负)(增)(长)(。
  对)(于)(市)(场)(出)(现)(变)(化)(的)(因)(素)(,上)(海)(明)(华)(有)(道)(商)(务)(咨)(询)(有)(限)(公)(司)(合)(伙)(人)(、汽)(车)(业)(务)(总)(监)(封)(士)(明)(在)(近)(日)(举)(行)(的)(中)(国)(汽)(车)(产)(业)(区)(域)(经)(济)(峰)(会)(上)(说)(,除)(了)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(增)(速)(放)(缓)(这)(一)(大)(背)(景)(外)(,中)(国)(汽)(车)(产)(销)(增)(速)(双)(双)(回)(落)(至)(个)(位)(数)(,与)(一)(线)(城)(市)(限)(购)(和)(限)(牌)(政)(策)(、人)(口)(红)(利)(短)(期)(内)(难)(以)(恢)(复)(,以)(及)(滴)(滴)(、神)(州)(等)(共)(享)(出)(行)(方)(式)(削)(弱)(购)(车)(意)(愿)(等)(息)(息)(相)(关)(,而)(另)(外)(一)(个)(短)(期)(因)(素)(是)(,受)(今)(年)(投)(资)(市)(场)(的)(波)(动)(所)(影)(响)(,个)(人)(股)(票)(被)(套)(牢)(从)(而)(制)(约)(了)(购)(车)(消)(费)(。
  此)(前)(6年)(,中)(国)(汽)(车)(产)(销)(量)(已)(连)(续)(拿)(下)(全)(球)(第)(一)(桂)(冠)(,作)(为)(国)(民)(经)(济)(支)(柱)(产)(业)(,汽)(车)(产)(业)(往)(往)(可)(带)(动)(100多)(个)(行)(业)(发)(展)(,汽)(车)(制)(造)(业)(每)(增)(加)(1元)(,可)(带)(动)(上)(下)(游)(关)(联)(产)(业)(增)(加)(2.64元)(。但)(在)(今)(年)(国)(家)(统)(计)(局)(发)(布)(三)(季)(度)(数)(据)(时)(,汽)(车)(增)(速)(放)(缓)(已)(成)(为)(影)(响)(经)(济)(下)(滑)(的)(行)(业)(产)(业)(。
  对)(于)(今)(年)(汽)(车)(产)(量)(总)(规)(模)(判)(断)(,朱)(宏)(任)(介)(绍)(,研)(究)(机)(构)(分)(别)(三)(次)(下)(调)(了)(预)(期)(,从)(年)(初)(的)(2500万)(辆)(,到)(年)(中)(的)(2400万)(辆)(,再)(到)(三)(季)(度)(的)(2300万)(辆)(。
  “现)(在)(看)(来)(,今)(年)(估)(计)(突)(破)(2400万)(辆)(难)(度)(比)(较)(大)(。”全)(国)(工)(商)(联)(汽)(车)(经)(销)(商)(商)(会)(秘)(书)(长)(朱)(孔)(源)(预)(测)(,未)(来)(10年)(中)(国)(汽)(车)(产)(销)(量)(难)(以)(再)(现)(高)(速)(增)(长)(态)(势)(,增)(速)(或)(将)(稳)(定)(在)(5%。
  一)(个)(关)(键)(的)(原)(因)(是)(,中)(国)(汽)(车)(产)(业)(正)(处)(于)(调)(整)(期)(,“处)(在)(一)(个)(由)(大)(变)(强)(的)(时)(期)(。”中)(国)(汽)(车)(咨)(询)(委)(员)(会)(委)(员)(张)(玉)(浦)(说)(。
  一)(方)(面)(,从)(中)(国)(汽)(车)(产)(量)(而)(言)(,其)(从)(2000年)(的)(206.8万)(辆)(上)(升)(至)(2014年)(的)(2372.3万)(辆)(,全)(球)(占)(比)(也)(从)(3.54%提)(高)(至)(26.44%,按)(照)(国)(务)(院)(参)(事)(室)(特)(约)(研)(究)(员)(姚)(景)(源)(的)(说)(法)(,现)(在)(一)(天)(的)(汽)(车)(产)(量)(就)(相)(当)(于)(七)(八)(年)(前)(半)(年)(的)(总)(产)(量)(。
  在)(这)(种)(背)(景)(下)(,“总)(量)(过)(剩)(、结)(构)(性)(过)(剩)(是)(当)(前)(汽)(车)(工)(业)(产)(能)(过)(剩)(的)(基)(本)(特)(点)(,也)(是)(当)(前)(汽)(车)(工)(业)(发)(展)(存)(在)(的)(重)(要)(问)(题)(。”中)(国)(汽)(车)(技)(术)(研)(究)(中)(心)(首)(席)(专)(家)(吴)(松)(泉)(说)(,中)(国)(车)(企)(面)(临)(产)(能)(过)(剩)(的)(压)(力)(。
  另)(一)(方)(面)(,在)(消)(费)(需)(求)(上)(,中)(国)(汽)(车)(千)(人)(保)(有)(量)(刚)(刚)(超)(过)(100辆)(,虽)(然)(从)(美)(日)(韩)(等)(发)(达)(国)(家)(经)(验)(来)(看)(,此)(后)(还)(会)(再)(保)(持)(较)(快)(速)(增)(长)(,但)(在)(王)(晓)(明)(看)(来)(,由)(于)(经)(济)(放)(缓)(导)(致)(居)(民)(收)(入)(增)(长)(不)(确)(定)(性)(增)(加)(后)(,消)(费)(者)(当)(期)(购)(买)(预)(期)(会)(延)(后)(,“不)(过)(下)(滑)(只)(是)(短)(暂)(性)(的)(。”他)(说)(。
  “一)(带)(一)(路)(”市)(场)(需)(有)(序)(进)(入)(
  在)(国)(内)(市)(场)(表)(现)(不)(如)(预)(期)(的)(格)(局)(下)(,借)(势)(“一)(带)(一)(路)(”这)(一)(国)(家)(战)(略)(成)(为)(当)(日)(车)(企)(热)(议)(的)(话)(题)(。
  广)(汽)(集)(团)(股)(份)(有)(限)(公)(司)(总)(经)(理)(助)(理)(欧)(阳)(惠)(芳)(将)(“一)(带)(一)(路)(”战)(略)(喻)(为)(中)(国)(企)(业)(第)(二)(轮)(走)(出)(去)(的)(机)(遇)(。在)(她)(看)(来)(,“一)(带)(一)(路)(”沿)(线)(绝)(大)(多)(数)(国)(家)(都)(是)(新)(兴)(经)(济)(体)(,其)(汽)(车)(消)(费)(是)(处)(于)(初)(级)(阶)(段)(,与)(中)(国)(车)(企)(产)(品)(的)(市)(场)(定)(位)(比)(较)(吻)(合)(;同)(时)(政)(策)(利)(好)(有)(助)(于)(中)(国)(车)(企)(以)(更)(快)(的)(速)(度)(、更)(低)(的)(成)(本)(出)(口)(;随)(着)(中)(国)(对)(外)(投)(资)(的)(增)(加)(和)(“一)(带)(一)(路)(”基)(础)(设)(施)(的)(完)(善)(,沿)(线)(国)(家)(对)(汽)(车)(日)(常)(需)(求)(也)(将)(会)(增)(大)(。
  与)(会)(专)(家)(预)(计)(,未)(来)(10年)(,“一)(带)(一)(路)(”带)(动)(整)(个)(出)(口)(量)(将)(会)(占)(世)(界)(汽)(车)(总)(产)(量)(的)(三)(分)(之)(一)(,真)(正)(成)(为)(第)(三)(极)(。未)(来)(三)(年)(内)(,该)(区)(域)(汽)(车)(销)(量)(可)(能)(会)(达)(到)(1500万)(-1800万)(辆)(。
  就)(2012年)(到)(2014年)(这)(三)(年)(数)(据)(来)(看)(,“一)(带)(一)(路)(”各)(区)(域)(汽)(车)(总)(销)(量)(分)(别)(为)(1218.85万)(、1218.08万)(、1219.38万)(辆)(。若)(按)(此)(预)(测)(,“一)(带)(一)(路)(”的)(汽)(车)(销)(量)(空)(间)(三)(年)(内)(有)(望)(增)(长)(20%-50%。
  以)(东)(南)(亚)(市)(场)(为)(例)(,其)(和)(非)(洲)(类)(似)(,区)(域)(集)(中)(度)(非)(常)(高)(。“像)(泰)(国)(、马)(来)(西)(亚)(、印)(尼)(,目)(前)(中)(国)(自)(主)(产)(品)(除)(了)(吉)(利)(、奇)(瑞)(、长)(城)(,还)(非)(常)(少)(。但)(这)(三)(个)(国)(家)(占)(到)(了)(整)(个)(东)(南)(亚)(市)(场)(规)(模)(的)(将)(近)(90%以)(上)(,巨)(大)(市)(场)(等)(着)(我)(们)(中)(国)(自)(主)(品)(牌)(企)(业)(去)(开)(拓)(。”北)(京)(汽)(车)(国)(际)(发)(展)(有)(限)(公)(司)(副)(总)(裁)(刘)(伟)(松)(说)(。
  不)(过)(,中)(国)(车)(企)(尤)(其)(是)(自)(主)(品)(牌)(车)(企)(,国)(际)(化)(程)(度)(并)(不)(高)(。虽)(然)(在)(2012年)(中)(国)(汽)(车)(出)(口)(首)(次)(超)(过)(百)(万)(辆)(,但)(连)(续)(三)(年)(来)(出)(口)(量)(都)(在)(大)(幅)(度)(下)(滑)(,业)(内)(预)(计)(今)(年)(或)(在)(80万)(台)(左)(右)(;此)(外)(,出)(口)(市)(场)(结)(构)(仍)(以)(发)(展)(中)(国)(家)(新)(兴)(市)(场)(为)(主)(。
  为)(何)(中)(国)(汽)(车)(出)(海)(步)(伐)(缓)(慢)(,甚)(至)(出)(现)(倒)(退)(?专)(做)(汽)(车)(海)(外)(业)(务)(的)(刘)(伟)(松)(将)(挑)(战)(归)(结)(为)(三)(点)(:技)(术)(能)(力)(、营)(销)(能)(力)(和)(品)(牌)(力)(的)(差)(距)(。
  以)(最)(为)(核)(心)(的)(因)(素)(品)(牌)(为)(例)(,刘)(伟)(松)(此)(前)(市)(场)(调)(研)(发)(现)(,自)(主)(品)(牌)(和)(合)(资)(品)(牌)(相)(比)(,后)(者)(在)(品)(牌)(溢)(价)(上)(达)(到)(40%左)(右)(。
  “在)(产)(品)(方)(面)(,中)(国)(汽)(车)(走)(了)(十)(几)(年)(的)(出)(口)(道)(路)(,但)(是)(我)(们)(的)(产)(品)(往)(往)(都)(是)(在)(价)(格)(上)(想)(办)(法)(去)(跟)(外)(资)(品)(牌)(竞)(争)(,产)(品)(本)(身)(并)(没)(有)(做)(太)(大)(的)(改)(变)(,以)(至)(于)(我)(们)(的)(产)(品)(在)(很)(多)(市)(场)(根)(本)(无)(法)(销)(售)(,更)(不)(要)(说)(做)(差)(异)(的)(竞)(争)(,现)(在)(企)(业)(的)(产)(品)(在)(国)(内)(市)(场)(生)(产)(以)(后)(再)(投)(入)(到)(海)(外)(市)(场)(,仅)(仅)(能)(够)(满)(足)(海)(外)(市)(场)(最)(低)(门)(槛)(的)(要)(求)(。”刘)(伟)(松)(直)(言)(。
  借)(“一)(带)(一)(路)(”加)(速)(出)(海)(,不)(仅)(需)(要)(解)(决)(车)(企)(自)(身)(问)(题)(,这)(一)(广)(袤)(的)(新)(兴)(市)(场)(还)(面)(临)(着)(不)(可)(预)(知)(的)(市)(场)(风)(险)(。
  在)(上)(海)(通)(用)(五)(菱)(汽)(车)(有)(限)(公)(司)(规)(划)(部)(首)(席)(专)(家)(张)(玉)(林)(看)(来)(,“一)(带)(一)(路)(”沿)(线)(国)(家)(宗)(教)(、领)(土)(等)(各)(类)(冲)(突)(不)(断)(,发)(展)(环)(境)(较)(为)(恶)(劣)(。像)(北)(非)(地)(区)(,受)(法)(系)(品)(牌)(制)(约)(,对)(政)(策)(法)(规)(有)(偏)(向)(性)(,政)(局)(动)(荡)(,美)(金)(支)(付)(能)(力)(不)(足)(,自)(由)(贸)(易)(协)(定)(名)(存)(实)(亡)(。
  中)(国)(第)(一)(汽)(车)(集)(团)(公)(司)(规)(划)(部)(部)(长)(付)(炳)(峰)(也)(提)(出)(担)(忧)(:“我)(们)(现)(在)(经)(营)(汽)(车)(比)(较)(艰)(难)(了)(,走)(出)(去)(一)(定)(能)(挣)(钱)(吗)(?在)(那)(么)(辽)(阔)(的)(市)(场)(里)(去)(寻)(找)(市)(场)(,布)(局)(系)(统)(包)(括)(生)(产)(,稍)(不)(小)(心)(利)(润)(基)(本)(就)(没)(有)(了)(。”
  他)(建)(议)(说)(,自)(主)(品)(牌)(车)(企)(一)(方)(面)(需)(要)(坚)(持)(以)(做)(品)(牌)(为)(主)(,另)(一)(方)(面)(进)(入)(“一)(带)(一)(路)(”沿)(岸)(市)(场)(也)(需)(要)(保)(持)(有)(序)(原)(则)(。
(责)(任)(编)(辑)(:黄)(远)(萍)()
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