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蝴蝶效应对中国经济影响有多大?

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2020年01月22日 16:52:00
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(先)(是)(阿)(根)(廷)(比)(索)(大)(幅)(贬)(值)(,接)(着)(土)(耳)(其)(货)(币)(里)(拉)(也)(重)(挫)(至)(历)(史)(最)(低)(。不)(仅)(如)(此)(,土)(耳)(其)(10年)(期)(国)(债)(收)(益)(率)(当)(日)(大)(涨)(91个)(基)(点)(,录)(得)(2014年)(以)(来)(最)(大)(涨)(幅)(。
由)(于)(国)(际)(油)(价)(大)(涨)(,导)(致)(新)(兴)(市)(场)(遭)(遇)(“债)(汇)(双)(杀)(”的)(原)(因)(是)(,油)(价)(波)(动)(性)(上)(涨)(,会)(触)(发)(通)(胀)(预)(期)(,随)(后)(美)(国)(国)(债)(出)(现)(大)(涨)(。当)(通)(胀)(预)(期)(上)(升)(,就)(会)(促)(使)(美)(联)(储)(货)(币)(政)(策)(收)(紧)(,这)(会)(使)(美)(元)(指)(数)(走)(强)(。如)(此)(一)(来)(,就)(这)(会)(导)(致)(新)(兴)(国)(家)(的)(资)(本)(市)(场)(出)(现)(大)(幅)(下)(跌)(,甚)(至)(还)(可)(能)(出)(现)(楼)(市)(泡)(沫)(的)(破)(裂)(。
最)(后)(,由)(于)(油)(价)(的)(大)(幅)(上)(涨)(,一)(旦)(油)(价)(升)(至)(75美)(元)(/桶)(水)(平)(,10年)(期)(美)(债)(收)(益)(率)(会)(升)(穿)(3%这)(一)(关)(键)(水)(平)(,就)(会)(导)(致)(人)(们)(对)(全)(球)(经)(济)(复)(苏)(的)(担)(忧)(。同)(时)(,美)(国)(国)(债)(指)(数)(的)(上)(涨)(,对)(全)(球)(股)(市)(产)(生)(压)(制)(,特)(别)(是)(美)(股)(可)(能)(会)(终)(结)(9年)(牛)(市)(。
那)(么)(,国)(际)(油)(价)(为)(何)(在)(沉)(寂)(了)(近)(四)(年)(时)(间)(后)(,又)(重)(拾)(升)(势)(呢)(?一)(方)(面)(,沙)(特)(和)(俄)(罗)(斯)(约)(定)(通)(过)(逐)(步)(减)(产)(,来)(促)(使)(国)(际)(油)(价)(上)(升)(,因)(为)(之)(前)(过)(低)(的)(油)(价)(,使)(沙)(特)(和)(俄)(罗)(斯)(经)(济)(难)(以)(承)(受)(。
另)(一)(方)(面)(,美)(国)(不)(但)(退)(出)(了)(之)(前)(的)(伊)(核)(伊)(议)(,还)(要)(制)(裁)(伊)(朗)(,这)(会)(造)(成)(国)(际)(油)(价)(供)(应)(减)(少)(。同)(时)(,委)(内)(瑞)(拉)(、利)(比)(亚)(、尼)(日)(利)(亚)(的)(石)(油)(供)(应)(都)(在)(减)(少)(,这)(进)(一)(步)(激)(化)(了)(全)(球)(原)(油)(供)(需)(矛)(盾)(。
不)(过)(,后)(续)(还)(有)(两)(大)(不)(确)(定)(因)(素)(影)(响)(国)(际)(油)(价)(;一)(是)(,沙)(特)(阿)(拉)(伯)(会)(不)(会)(在)(美)(国)(的)(要)(求)(下)(重)(启)(产)(能)(,或)(者)(为)(了)(抢)(占)(市)(场)(份)(额)(而)(主)(动)(放)(开)(;另)(一)(是)(,美)(国)(页)(岩)(油)(会)(不)(会)(受)(到)(国)(际)(油)(价)(上)(涨)(的)(剌)(激)(下)(,持)(续)(提)(高)(产)(量)(,对)(国)(际)(油)(价)(上)(涨)(购)(成)(压)(制)(成)(势)(。
现)(在)(问)(题)(是)(,国)(际)(油)(价)(上)(涨)(对)(中)(国)(的)(经)(济)(影)(响)(有)(多)(大)(呢)(?第)(一)(,国)(际)(油)(价)(上)(涨)(对)(中)(国)(经)(济)(会)(带)(来)(输)(入)(性)(通)(胀)(,若)(再)(加)(上)(货)(币)(超)(发)(现)(象)(较)(重)(,国)(内)(商)(品)(有)(上)(涨)(的)(需)(求)(。
实)(际)(上)(,国)(内)(成)(品)(油)(价)(涨)(跌)(是)(由)(发)(改)(委)(来)(决)(定)(。2014年)(国)(际)(油)(价)(突)(破)(140美)(元)(/桶)(时)(,国)(内)(成)(品)(油)(价)(还)(是)(被)(牢)(牢)(的)(控)(制)(住)(。所)(以)(,国)(际)(油)(价)(上)(涨)(,对)(中)(石)(化)(、中)(石)(油)(构)(成)(利)(好)(,对)(国)(内)(通)(胀)(上)(升)(的)(影)(响)(应)(该)(相)(对)(还)(是)(有)(限)(的)(。
第)(二)(,国)(际)(油)(价)(上)(涨)(,会)(使)(美)(国)(通)(胀)(预)(期)(上)(升)(,这)(会)(加)(快)(美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(和)(缩)(表)(进)(程)(。同)(时)(,美)(国)(长)(期)(国)(债)(的)(利)(率)(上)(升)(,又)(缩)(小)(了)(其)(与)(中)(国)(的)(利)(差)(。所)(以)(,人)(民)(币)(出)(现)(趋)(势)(性)(小)(幅)(贬)(值)(恐)(怕)(难)(以)(避)(免)(,届)(时)(会)(有)(大)(量)(境)(内)(外)(资)(金)(流)(出)(中)(国)(。
更)(要)(警)(惕)(的)(是)(,由)(于)(大)(量)(资)(金)(通)(过)(各)(种)(渠)(道)(流)(出)(中)(国)(,国)(内)(房)(地)(产)(泡)(沫)(在)(演)(绎)(了)(最)(后)(一)(轮)(疯)(狂)(后)(,将)(会)(转)(向)(大)(调)(整)(周)(期)(。当)(然)(一)(些)(城)(市)(对)(房)(地)(产)(实)(行)(了)(限)(购)(、限)(售)(等)(措)(施)(,短)(期)(内)(进)(入)(楼)(市)(的)(资)(金)(要)(想)(流)(出)(的)(可)(能)(性)(不)(大)(。
最)(后)(,国)(际)(油)(价)(长)(期)(盘)(横)(在)(高)(位)(,会)(让)(美)(国)(为)(了)(应)(对)(通)(胀)(,进)(一)(步)(收)(紧)(货)(币)(政)(策)(。与)(此)(同)(时)(国)(债)(利)(率)(上)(升)(也)(对)(美)(国)(股)(市)(造)(成)(不)(利)(影)(响)(。所)(以)(,对)(A股)(市)(场)(形)(成)(的)(是)(两)(方)(面)(压)(力)(,一)(是)(美)(国)(股)(市)(下)(跌)(,全)(球)(股)(市)(也)(会)(进)(入)(调)(整)(,A股)(也)(恐)(难)(幸)(免)(。二)(是)(美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(和)(缩)(表)(,引)(发)(国)(内)(外)(资)(金)(的)(辙)(离)(,这)(会)(给)(A股)(市)(场)(的)(造)(成)(流)(动)(性)(造)(成)(压)(力)(。
国)(际)(油)(价)(大)(涨)(,甚)(至)(站)(上)(80美)(元)(/桶)(高)(位)(,这)(是)(几)(家)(欢)(喜)(几)(家)(愁)(。而)(中)(国)(对)(石)(油)(依)(赖)(度)(越)(来)(越)(大)(,受)(到)(影)(响)(会)(不)(小)(。只)(是)(中)(国)(对)(成)(品)(油)(进)(行)(管)(制)(,所)(以)(油)(价)(上)(涨)(对)(国)(内)(物)(价)(影)(响)(还)(较)(弱)(。不)(过)(,由)(于)(美)(联)(储)(收)(紧)(货)(币)(,境)(内)(外)(资)(金)(流)(出)(,这)(倒)(会)(给)(汇)(市)(、股)(市)(和)(楼)(市)(造)(成)(挤)(压)(。所)(以)(,国)(际)(油)(价)(上)(涨)(,更)(多)(会)(对)(国)(内)(资)(本)(市)(场)(产)(生)(较)(大)(冲)(击)(。返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(
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